Machine Learning p-value for beginners

Suresh Kandru
5 min readMay 9, 2024

The p-value is a critical concept in statistical hypothesis testing, particularly in deciding whether to retain or reject a null hypothesis. Let’s explore this concept with a detailed example.

From ML-Science

Understanding P-Value:

The p-value is the probability of obtaining an effect at least as extreme as the one in your sample data, assuming that the null hypothesis is true. It is a measure of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis.

Null Hypothesis (H0):

The null hypothesis generally posits that there is no effect or no difference. In the context of a regression model, it might state that a particular predictor’s coefficient is zero (i.e., the predictor has no impact on the outcome variable).

Alternative Hypothesis (H1):

The alternative hypothesis contradicts the null hypothesis. It suggests that the predictor does have an effect (i.e., the coefficient is not zero).

Example Scenario: Impact of Study Hours on Exam Scores

Suppose you want to understand whether the number of hours a student studies affects their exam score.

Data:

  • Hours Studied: [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

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Suresh Kandru

Cloud Architect | Innovating with Machine Learning, LLMs and Generative AI - Sureshkandru.com